Prabowo, Jokowi likely on friendly terms for now, but this may change by next election: Analysts
The relationship between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessor Joko Widodo has come under the spotlight again after their recent meeting in Jakarta.
While details of what they discussed were scarce – an official statement said they exchanged views on state affairs, without elaborating – the meeting on Oct 4 has renewed attention on the dynamics between the two.
There has been speculation about increased tensions between the duo who were rivals at the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, given Mr Prabowo’s dismissal of senior officials appointed by his predecessor in recent months.
But analysts told The Straits Times that the two men would likely stay on good terms amid the current challenges faced by Indonesia.
Mr Agung Baskoro, executive director of political research group Trias Politika Strategis, said they need each other now amid growing domestic and global challenges.
Mr Prabowo will continue to seek advice from Mr Widodo and will want to ensure political stability until at least 2028, a year before the next presidential election in 2029, he added.
South-east Asia’s largest economy is currently grappling with weakening purchasing power and rising unemployment in the formal sector, amid persistent pressure on the rupiah due to the strengthening US dollar.
Other analysts also downplayed Mr Prabowo’s moves to replace officials appointed by Mr Widodo, though these have sparked talk of “dejokowisasi”, a term used by the local media to refer to the decline of the former president’s political influence. Mr Widodo is widely known by the moniker Jokowi.
Loyalists of Mr Widodo removed from the Cabinet in September include Mr Budi Arie Setiadi, who was minister of cooperatives, and Mr Hasan Nasbi, who headed the presidential communication office.
Mr Prabowo has also created new positions, including the roles of deputy army chief and deputy armed forces chief, in what is seen as a counterbalance to figures closely linked to Mr Widodo who still hold strategic posts in the military.
Traditionally, both the armed forces chief and army chief serve until their retirement, and sitting presidents do not replace them before their terms end.
recent Cabinet reshuffles, political analyst Wasisto Raharjo told The Straits Times: “They have been based on fair and professional decisions. Those removed were the people who underperformed or had legal problems.”
He also noted that the Cabinet continues to have officials linked to Mr Widodo.
Political analyst Made Supriatma said it is clear that efforts are being taken to reduce Mr Widodo’s influence in Indonesian politics, and this is natural.
“It’s impossible that Prabowo would allow anyone to have more power or yield a very strong influence in his administration that he cannot control,” he said on a recent Kanal SA podcast programme on YouTube.
“I am seeing a significant decline in Mr Widodo’s influence on the national political stage, whether due to personal issues, like the forfeited diploma case, or other reasons.”
On Oct 9, The Jakarta Post, in a report about the two leaders’ meeting, said Mr Widodo might be seeking reassurance from his successor as political pressure mounts on him and his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming amid growing
public scrutiny of their academic credentials.
There have been allegations that Mr Widodo falsified his university diploma and that Mr Gibran does not have a high school diploma. Both have dismissed the allegations.
Mr Wasisto said the two leaders would likely be on good terms in the years ahead, but things could change nearer the 2029 presidential election.
Though that election is still some time away, political bigwigs and key parties have begun discussions, mindful of the long-game nature of the competition.
One thing to watch for is whether Mr Prabowo will run again in the presidential race with Mr Gibran, the current vice-president.
Supporters of Mr Prabowo and his Gerindra Party have pledged to secure a second five-year term for him, without saying who his running mate should be.
While Mr Widodo has publicly expressed support for a second Prabowo-Gibran ticket, analysts who spoke to ST view this as unlikely, considering Mr Gibran’s lack of strong achievements.
More than a year has passed since
the 2024 polls and Mr Gibran has not had anything impressive to show for it, said Mr Agung.
“It will boil down to what Gibran will have to offer to add to Prabowo’s electoral base. If Gibran does not perform in the current term, Prabowo will look elsewhere and find a strong and attractive running mate.”
The local media has reported that there is a good chance that Mr Widodo, who under the Constitution cannot seek a third five-year term, will endorse his son as a presidential candidate in 2029 to face off against Mr Prabowo. Mr Widodo was Indonesia’s seventh president between 2014 and 2024.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Widodo have had an evolving relationship, from being allies to rivals, and then back as allies again.
Mr Prabowo’s Gerindra first propelled Mr Widodo to national prominence in 2012 by nominating the then mayor of the sleepy town of Solo for the Jakarta governor post.
Mr Widodo served less than half his term before running for president, defeating Mr Prabowo in the 2014 election and again in a heated rematch five years later.
In a surprising political turn, Mr Widodo asked Mr Prabowo to be defence minister, an offer accepted by the latter mainly for the sake of national unity and reconciliation following a divisive election in 2019.
In the 2024 presidential election, Mr Widodo’s endorsement of Mr Prabowo led to the former being removed from the then ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which had been central to Mr Widodo’s political base in the previous two decades.
Terbit di The Strait Times
